Even as brand-new 5G technology has yet to establish a foothold around the world, the U.S. and China already are racing to develop the next step in high-speed communications: a 6G network.
XThe U.S. telecom industry hopes to send a "National 6G Roadmap" to the Biden administration and Congress in early 2022 to get a jump start. The roadmap will also recommend radio spectrum best suited for 6G network applications.
The 6G blueprint is being developed by the Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions. ATIS last year formed the Next G Alliance, which has nearly 70 corporate members, to create 6G task groups. One ATIS goal is capturing U.S. government funding to spur 6G research and commercial development.
ATIS also aims to put the U.S. on a fast track to providing technical specifications. It expects global industry standards makers will turn their attention to a 6G network around 2024-25. Telecom firms may have to bid for 6G airwaves as well but ATIS plans to steer away from that subject.
"Certainly we are watching what's happening in the global landscape and there's a lot of energy globally around 6G," ATIS Chief Executive Susan Miller told Investor's Business Daily. "We are looking at this through an entire ecosystem that takes it all the way from the R&D phase to commercialization and market readiness. We're looking at it very holistically."
6G Network Radio Spectrum Needs
Founding members of the Next G Alliance include AT&T (T), Ciena (CIEN), Facebook (FB), Ericsson (ERIC), Interdigital, Microsoft (MSFT), Qualcomm (QCOM), T-Mobile US (TMUS) and Verizon Communications (VZ) as well as other companies.
While 5G wireless networks use high frequencies in 24 gigahertz to 40 gigahertz bands, 6G will go much higher. The Federal Communications Commission in 2019 opened up spectrum in the 95 gigahertz to 3 terahertz range for experimental use. Early 6G wireless research projects focus on terahertz spectrum, representing the first venture into that realm for a wireless network.
Terahertz radio waves carry much more data than lower frequency bands. But they transmit data over shorter distances than airwaves used by a 5G network. As a result, a 6G network will require more radio antennas than 5G.
But Mike Nawrocki, managing director of the Next G Alliance, says lower, midband spectrum has not been ruled out for a 6G network. Nawrocki expects 6G wireless to find a role in more demanding applications than 5G.
"Some of the applications right now that we see driving 6G include holographic services, things that require ultra high-definition positioning, extended reality, the concept of digital twins, and ultrarealistic gaming entertainment," he said. "These are things that require significant bandwidth, and in some cases, very low latency."
According to an IBM blog, a digital twin is: "a virtual representation of an object or system that spans its life cycle, is updated from real-time data, and uses simulation, machine learning and reasoning to help decision-making."
5G Wireless Still Looking For Revenue Drivers
Meanwhile, telecom firms worldwide are still in the early stages of building out 5G networks. These networks have yet to latch on to a killer business or consumer app.
U.S. wireless firms spent $81 billion in a 5G wireless spectrum auction that ended in January. The government started another 5G spectrum auction on Tuesday, Oct. 5. That auction could raise around $20 billion, analysts estimate.
5G business applications, meanwhile, are still in development. Autonomous vehicles and drones will take years to develop as a market.
Telecom companies aim to provide private 5G communications in the "Internet of Things" and business-to-business services. The Internet of Things involves web-connected industrial devices. Telecom firms also remain focused on 5G services in mobile edge computing in manufacturing, health care, agriculture and other settings.
In the consumer market, Apple (AAPL) recently rolled out its 5G-ready iPhone 13 models. But consumers mainly use 5G smartphones for the same apps as 4G networks, such as video streaming.
6G Network To Be Big Business By 2035?
Some telecom firms aim to provide residential broadband services with 5G networks. But 5G broadband has yet to be widely deployed.
In a recent report, though, Bank of America speculated 5G networks could start running out of data capacity by 2030. The report cited new applications such as XR — a mix of augmented and virtual reality — along with holograms and autonomous vehicles.
"6G will be the successor to 5G mobile technology in the transmission of mobile data and is estimated to be commercially available before the end of this decade," the report said. "6G will offer 10 times to 50 times higher speeds and bandwidth compared with 5G, with a much better latency (network response time). According to different estimates, 6G download speeds could reach 400 to 500 gigabits per second."
Bank of America forecasts that by 2035 the global 6G network wireless market will be $1.77 trillion. It says a 6G network will be "the first network to adopt artificial-intelligence-embedded machine learning algorithms to channel data and maximize network traffic."
6G Patent Battles Already Starting
Meanwhile, a battle to file 6G network patents is underway.
"The 6G R&D and patent race is in full swing at the moment but most activities are taking place behind closed doors, which is normal at this stage of development for a new technology," said ABI Research analyst Dimitris Mavrakis. "China is very active in this area, especially Huawei and ZTE, as well as Europe with Ericsson and Nokia and the U.S., led by Qualcomm."
The U.S. and some European countries banned telecom companies from buying Huawei's 5G network equipment on national security grounds. Huawei management has stated it aims to be tops in 6G wireless technology.
Mavrakis added that industry standards groups, such as the 3GPP, continue to focus on more advanced versions of 5G networks.
But "many companies are starting to discuss 6G developments, including terahertz spectrum, full duplex communications, cognitive networks and much more," he added.
Follow Reinhardt Krause on Twitter @reinhardtk_tech for updates on 5G wireless, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and cloud computing.
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